摘要
南水北调配套工程运行风险评估体系属于复杂的系统问题,其模糊性在评估中应予以考虑。基于模糊识别理论,采用非线性模型对清苑县南水北调配套工程运行风险进行评价。结果表明,清苑县南水北调配套工程运行风险等级介于2级与3级之间,略偏于2级,属于低风险等级。评价过程与评价结果不仅可为清苑县南水北调配套工程的安全管理提供参考意义,而且表明非线性模型在南水北调配套工程运行风险评价中具有良好的适用性。
The operation risk analysis and assessment of the supporting engineering in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a complex system problem,and its fuzzy characteristics need to be considered in the evaluation.Based on the fuzzy recognition theory,this paper used the nonlinear model to evaluate the operation risk of the supporting engineering in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of Qingyuan County.The results showed that operation risk level of the supporting engineering is between level 2 and level 3 and tends to level 2 slightly,which indicated that the risk is low.The evaluation process and resuits can not only provide reference value for the safety management of the supporting engineering in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of Qingyuan County,but also demonstrate that the nonlinear model is applicable to perform the risk assessment of the supporting engineering in the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期184-188,共5页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
关键词
模糊识别理论
南水北调
配套工程
运行风险等级
非线性模型
fuzzy recognition theory
South-to-North Water Diversion Project
supporting engineering
operation risk level
nonlinear model
