摘要
本文以1980年以来厄尔尼诺事件为基础,研究其与N BSK、溶解浆市场运行之间的关联度,发现每次中性强度的厄尔尼诺事件发生后,市场价格单边上涨为大概率事件;而强厄尔尼诺事件发生后市场呈现震荡运行,且彼此之间存在周期性波函数的关系,并据此预测2014年厄尔尼诺现象对市场的影响。首次填补了气象经济学在NBSK与溶解浆市场运行分析中的应用空白。
Based on EI Nino events since 1980, the artical discussed its relevance with NBSK, dissolving pulp market trend. Market prices rise up is a big probility event when a neutral intensit of EI Nino happened; while the market prices would be concussion after a heavy EI Nino; moreover, the two things have a perodic wave function relationship. Thereout, the article deduced the EI Nino event's influence on the market in 2014. Meteorological Economics was applied in NBSK and Dissolving Pulp market operational analysis for the first time.
出处
《中华纸业》
CAS
2014年第19期48-53,15,共6页
China Pulp & Paper Industry
