摘要
基于通用生成函数(universal generating function,UGF)方法和多状态系统(multi-state system,MSS)理论,提出了厂站接线可靠性评估的模型和算法,解析获得反映厂站接线整体性能的多状态概率分布表达式,据此可灵活求取系统可靠性指标。通过分析厂站接线的特点,定义了合适的性能函数和相应的算子,将各元件的连通性归并到各自起始节点上,以多项式的形式建立各节点的u函数模型,并通过节点集的u函数运算,获得综合反映厂站接线故障后果及其发生概率的多状态系统u函数;针对多环形拓扑结构中元件的备用与功率的转移,引入桥连结构及其修正计算,改进了UGF方法难以处理无向图的不足;为降低计算复杂度,通过前期对单纯串并联支路的等值和计算过程中的样本缩减技术,提高了计算效率。针对3/2接线方式的分析,及与蒙特卡罗方法计算结果的比较,验证了所提方法的正确性和有效性。
Based on the method of universal generating function （UGF） and the theory of multi-state system （MSS）, the model and algorithm for reliability assessment of station scheme are proposed, and the MSS expression that reflects overall performance of station scheme can be obtained by the proposed model is analyzed, on this basis various reliability indices of the station scheme can be calculated flexibly. Through analyzing the features of station scheme, appropriate performance fimctions and corresponding operators are defined and the connectivity of each component is aggregated to its starting node, then the u-function model of each node is established in the form of polynomial and through the calculation of u-function of nodal set a u-function of MSS that comprehensively reflects the results of faults occurred in the station scheme and their occurrence probabilities is attained; to address the reserve of components and the transfer of power in multi-ring topological structure, the bridge structure and its correction computation are led in to remedy the defect that in UGF method it is hard to process the undirected graph; to reduce the computational complexity, the computation efficiency is improved by applying the equivalence of simple series- and parallel-connected branches and the sample reduction technique in the earlier stage. Taking typical 3/2 circuit breaker connection mode for the station system with two incoming lines and four outlet lines as the example, the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated by the results of analysis and Monte Carlo simulation on the example.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第9期2473-2478,共6页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51077087)~~
关键词
厂站接线
可靠性
通用生成函数方法
多状态系统
样本缩减
station scheme
reliability
universalgenerating function
multi-state system
sample reduction
