摘要
开放经济条件下"确保谷物基本自给,口粮绝对安全"的粮食安全目标受国际贸易影响愈加明显,作为口粮之一的大米价格剧烈变动成为影响我国粮食安全的重要因素。本文运用Johansen协整检验与持久-短暂模型(P-T模型)对大米主产国中国、美国、泰国三国大米市场高中低三级大米价格变化的共有因子进行了分析,探索价格间的内在联系以及对粮食安全的作用机制。结果表明,国际大米价格间的互动性对我国粮食安全冲击较大,表现为国际大米价格波动显著影响我国的大米价格,其中,中低端大米市场受到的冲击最大,而我国大米价格对国际高端大米价格的影响较为有限。相比之下,泰国大米市场受国际大米价格波动的影响较小,对国际大米价格的影响最大;美国大米市场受到国际米价波动的影响也不显著,受非价格因素的影响较大。因此,合理利用国际国内两个市场保障我国粮食安全要立足国内,充分应用进口配额调控机制并借鉴粮食强国的生产加工和期货市场经验,不断增强我国大米的国际竞争力。
Under the open economy condition, China＇ s rations absolute security have more and more exposure to the international trade. Food safety involves the amount of commissariat, and it can be conducted through international trade and reflected by price fluctuate. According to this, price fluctuation in China＇ s rice market is relevant to food security. By using Johansen cointegration test and permanent-transitory model, this paper studies the common factors of three grades rice in China, Thailand and the U. S markets and analyses interactive influence between international rice price and China rice price and reveals significantly effect on food safety. The result indicates that the international price for rice had a significant effect on the food security of China. China rice price is mostly influenced by international rice market, especially for the middle and low-end market, but our rice price has little impacted the international high-end market. Meanwhile, price of rice in Thailand was less affected by the international price ; in contrast, it had a great iruquence on international prices. The influence of international price of rice is insignificant in the U. S. , which further proves the non-price factors are more important for the U. S market. Finally, it gives some policy suggestions on how to make better use of domestic and international markets and resources to guarantee China food security. Based on self-sufficient in grain, what we should do is to readjust the annual total import quotas and learn foreign advanced experiences on production, processing and futures market.
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第10期163-169,共7页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社科基金重大课题"开放经济条件下完善我国农产品价格形成机制和调控机制研究--基于产业链联动优化的视角"(编号:09&ZD044)
