摘要
文章利用1978～2011年全国时间序列数据和2000～2011年省级面板数据对人力资本配置结构与城镇化水平进行了定量分析。结果发现，人力资本配置结构和产值结构在城镇化发展进程的不同阶段所起的作用不同。时间序列数据显示，现阶段中国城镇化的动力源泉之一在于人力资本的产业配置优化和升级。分省数据显示，城镇化水平较低的省份，产值优化率对城镇化的贡献更显著；城镇化水平较高的省份，产值结构优化已不再起主导作用，人力资本产业配置优化的作用和贡献更为明显。因此，文章认为，加大人力资本投资，提升人力资本的整体水平，加快人力资本的转移和流动是推动未来城镇化发展的主要动力。
According to the national time series data from 1978 to 2011 and the inter-provincial panel data from 2000 to 2011,this paper makes regression analysis between the structure of human capital allocation and the level of urbanisation.The results show that human capital allocation structure and industrial output structure play different roles in the different developmeni phases of urbanisation.The time series data indicates that one of driving forces of current urbanisation is to upgrade and optimise industrial allocation of human capital.In provinces with a low level urbanisation,output utilisation has greater significance than labour utilisation on urbanisation.However,in provinces with a high level urbanisation,the contribution of labour utilisation is more obvious,and optimal industrial structure is no longer playing the leading role.The paper argues that the main forces to promote future urbanisation are increasing human capital investment,improving the overall level of human capital and accelerating transfer and flow of human capital.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第5期79-87,127-128,共9页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"人口与经济发展方式转变研究"(项目编号:12ARK001)的阶段性成果
