摘要
随着经济发展、人口与能源消耗的增长,以及不合理的能源结构,导致了长三角地区碳排放的不断增加。文章以人口增长率、GDP增长率、能源消耗量、能源技术进步率、能源结构优化系数变动率为影响因素在对IPAT模型进行改进的基础上,对2006-2011年间长三角地区碳排放的影响因素进行定量分析。主要结论是长三角地区能源技术进步率与能源结构优化的减排作用还不能抵消人口与GDP的快速增长的影响,受能源结构优化系数变动比率逐步增加的影响,碳排放量受人口增长率与GDP增长率的影响呈逐年减小趋势,能源技术进步率与能源结构优化的减排作用日趋显著。
With the economy expanding, the population and energy consumption gorwing, and the unreasonable structure of energy, causes the carbon emissions of Yangtze River delta region increase continued. On the basis of IPAT model improved with the influential factors of the population and GDP growth rate, energy consumption and the rate of energy technology progress and energy structure optimization coefficient. The paper analyzes quantitatively the influential factors of carbon emissions in Yangtze River delta region （2006-2011）. The main results show that the emission reduction effects of the rate of energy technology progress and optimizing energy structure has not been able to offset the rapid growth of the population and GDP in Yangtze River delta. Because of the gradual increase of energy structure optimization coefficient ratio. Carbon emissions decrease under the impact of population and GDP growth rate year by year. The emission reduction role of energy technology progress rate and energy structure optimization is becoming more and more obvious.
出处
《技术经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
2014年第9期106-109,共4页
Journal of Technical Economics & Management
基金
国家948项目(2009-4-44)
江苏省教育厅2013年度高校哲学社科项目(2013SJB6300050)
