摘要
针对小水电项目投资风险较大且种类繁多特点,建立了结合系统与非系统因素的投资风险指标体系,在此基础上构建了基于熵权—离差最大化法的投资风险评价模型,应用熵权法与离差法客观确定投资风险评价指标的组合权重,并以不同地区的小水电项目为样本进行全面的评价与分析,最终确定了影响作用最大的5个风险指标以及各方案的投资优劣情况。模拟结果表明,该模型不仅可有效控制小水电投资风险,也为小水电项目投资风险评价方法提供了新的思路。
According to the investment risk and variety characteristics of small hydropower project, investment risk index system was established by considering the system and non-system factors. On this basis, the investment risk evaluation model based on entropy weight-maximizing deviation method was constructed. Combination weights were made objectively by the application of entropy method and deviation method. And then the examples of small hydropower project in different parts were took for samples, and the model was implemented with the comprehensive evaluation and analysis. Finally, the five largest risk indicators which have largest impact, and the order of the investment projects are determined. Simulation results show that the model not only can effectively control the small hydropower investment risk, but also provide a new idea for investment risk evaluation method of small hydropower project.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2014年第8期138-141,共4页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
小水电
投资风险
熵权
离差最大化
small hydropower
investment risk
entropy weight
maximizing deviation
