摘要
根据浑河干流大伙房水库、沈阳和邢家窝棚3个水文控制站1964-2011年的逐月径流资料和逐月降雨资料,运用数理统计、Kendall秩次检验、R/S分析法和M-K突变检验等方法,计算分析了浑河流域径流的年际变化、代际变化、年内分配和径流变化趋势等多种特征,并利用降水—径流双累积曲线法研究了浑河流域降水和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率。结果表明,浑河流域径流的年际变化剧烈,下游的变差系数与极值比大于上游,说明下游更不利于水资源综合利用和管理;浑河干流丰水期历时短,枯水期历时长,大部分年份处于枯水期;浑河干流径流的代际变化不明显,但径流年内分配很不均匀,主要集中在5-10月,约占全年径流量的75%;浑河流域的径流序列呈现出丰枯交替变化,处于不显著递减状态;影响浑河干流径流变化的主要因素是人类活动,其次是降水变化。
According to the monthly runoff and rainfall data of three hydrological control station （Dahuofang reservoir, Shenyang and Xingjia shack station） distributed in the main stream of the Hunhe River from 1964 to 2011 （nearly 50 years）, mathematical statistics, Mann-Kendall rank test, R/S analysis and M-K sudden change test method were applied to analyze the interannual variability, generational change, annual variation characteristics and runoff trend of the Hunhe River Basin. In addition, double mass curve for annual rainfall stream flow was used to study the contribution of precipitation and human activities on runoff change in Hunhe River. The results show that the inter-annual variability of Hunhe River is drastic, and the variation coefficient and extreme ratio of the downstream is greater than the upstream, which states that the comprehensive utilization and management of the downstream water resources is more difficult; besides, the period of plentiful is short, and most of years are in the drought period in Hunhe River; the generational change of Hunhe River is not obvious, but the annual runoff of Hunhe River is unevenly distributed with 75 % occurring from May to October; moreover, the runoff series presents the change in high and low flow cycles and is in a state of non- significant decline; the main factor that affects the runoff of Hunhe River is the activity of human, followed by precipitation change.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2014年第8期34-38,共5页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
浑河干流
径流变化
人类活动
驱动力分析
降水变化
main stream of Hunhe River
runoff variation
human activity
driving forces analysis
precipitation
change
