摘要
为研究新疆车尔臣河流域降水时间变化趋势,促进该地区的水资源优化配置,利用且末县气象站53 a的降水资料(1956—2008年),使用Mann-Kendall(MK)和Spearman's Rho(SR)非参数检验方法对降水数据在月、季、年3种时间尺度上的变化趋势进行显著性检验。为消除降水序列相关性的影响,对降水数据进行趋势自由预白化(Trend Free Pre-Whitening approach,简称TFPW)处理。结果表明:在月尺度分析中,1、2、5和12月通过了显著性检验,其增长趋势分别为0.0162、0.013 6、0.076 9和0.017 6 mm/a;在季节尺度分析中,春季与冬季通过了显著性检验,其增长趋势分别为0.135 5 mm/a和0.0453 mm/a;年尺度分析通过了显著性检验,研究区近53 a来降水量呈缓慢增长趋势,其值为0.2614 mm/a;采用MK和SR非参数方法对数据进行检验,所得结果完全一致,实现了方法对方法的检验。
To study the variation trend of precipitation time in Xinjiang Che＇erchen river basin so as to promote the optimum arrangement of the water resources in the region, the 53-year data on precipitation （1956-2008） from the Meteorological Station, Qiemo County and the non-parameter verification methods of Mann-Kendall （ MK） and Spearman＇s Rho （ SR） are applied to verify the significance of varia-tion trend of precipitation data in terms of year, month and quarter.To eliminate impacts by the precipitation series correlation, the pre-cipitation data is treated by trend free pre-whitening approach.The results present that in the analysis by month, January, February, May and December pass the significance verification, and their growths are 0.016 2,0.013 6, 0.076 9 and 0.017 6 mm/a respectively;in the analysis by quarter, both spring and winter pass the significance verification, their growths are 0.135 5 mm/a and 0.045 3 mm/a;the analysis by year passes the significance verification.The trend of the precipitation in the region in last 53 a increases slowly, the growth is 0.261 4 mm/a.The data are verified by the non-parameter methods of MK and SR.The results are completely the same.One method applied to verify the other is realized.
出处
《西北水电》
2014年第4期1-4,共4页
Northwest Hydropower
