摘要
本研究根据武夷山市历年统计的茶叶产量,利用GM(1,1)模型对武夷山市2014—2020年茶叶产量进行预测。结果表明:1)武夷山市的茶叶产量在2014—2020年将保持稳步上升的趋势,至2020年茶叶产量将逼近30000t/a;2)该模型具有精度较高,预测准确的特点,可以用于其他作物的产量预测。
According to the statistics of Wuyishan City tea production from 1989 to 2004 and 2006 to 2011, GM （1,1） model was utilized to forecast the tea production of Wuyishan City from 2014 to 2020. The result showed： 1）The tea production of Wuyishan City would keep steadily rising trend from 2014 to 2020, and the production in 2020 would approach 30000 t/a; 2）The feature of this model was high precision and accuracy in forecast, so that this model could be applied in forecasting the production of other crops.
出处
《科技视界》
2014年第22期21-22,共2页
Science & Technology Vision
基金
国家基础科学人才培养基金项目"福建师范大学地理学基地科研训练及科研能力提高专案"(J1210067)
