摘要
德昌县2004年暴发的群发性泥石流灾害给当地居民生活和生产造成了严重的损失。群发性泥石流的预测和防治将是该地区泥石流防灾减灾工作中的重点和难点。在一次群发性泥石流事件中,既有沟谷发生了泥石流,也有沟谷未发生泥石流。因此对这两类沟谷地形、地质和水文条件的对比研究使判定泥石流的形成概率成为可能。在对德昌2004年8月24日群发性泥石流现场调查的基础上,从形成机理出发,使用了一种泥石流的形成判别模型。通过一个单一的因素(形成因子P)代表地形、地质和水文条件,从而得到泥石流发生的临界值,再通过判别模型反算得到每一条沟谷的临界降雨量,将泥石流的形成概率划分为3个等级:安全、易发和高发。该方法充分考虑了泥石流形成的地形、地质和水文三大条件,并使用无量纲化,便于评估泥石流发生的难易程度,在研究区取得了良好的效果,为泥石流的预测防治提供了一个新的研究方法。
Debris flow disasters on 2004 in Dengchang country caused serious harm to local residents and pro- duction. Forecast and control the group-occurring debris flow will be the most important and difficult issues in deb- ris flow disaster prevention and mitigation work in Dechang country. And in the event of an outbreak of group-oc- curring debris flow, debris flow be triggered in some gullies, but some of gullies have no debris flow. So contrasting and researching the topography, geology and hydrology conditions of these two types gullies make it possible to de- termine the formation probability of debris flow. To research the formation mechanism of group-occurring debris flow in Dechang country on August 24,2004, this paper uses a formation model for debris flows. The formation model for debris flows proposes one single factor to represent the factors related to topography, geology and hydrology and gets triggering threshold of debris flows. The critical rainfall of every gully is obtained by inverse calculation of dis- criminant model. Probability of the debris flow formation is divided into three levels ： security, prone and high inci- dence. The method fully considers the debris flow formation conditions： topography, geology and hydrology. The model uses dimensionless, it facilitates to assessment to the difficulty of debris flows, so made a good effect in the study area. provides a new research method for the prevention and control of debris flow.
出处
《科学技术与工程》
北大核心
2014年第21期32-39,共8页
Science Technology and Engineering
基金
西南地区重大地质灾害调查评价与早期预警(12120113010100)资助
关键词
群发性泥石流
形成机理
预测
德昌县
group-occurring debris flow formation mechanism prediction research Dechang county
