摘要
目的 应用工作簿法（Workbook法）估计2011年全国梅毒疫情.方法 利用全国性病艾滋病监测系统,收集2011年31个省份15 ～ 49岁年龄组的女性性工作者（FSW）、男男性行为者（MSM）、性病就诊者、吸毒者、孕产妇、普通人群的人群规模和梅毒感染率数据,应用Meta分析合并不同监测点同一人群的多个梅毒感染率,应用Workbook法估计全国梅毒感染例数.结果 2011年全国15 ～49岁年龄组人群梅毒感染估计数（95％ CI值）为2 979 422（1 504 000 ～6 063 309）例.其中,FSW人群估计感染数为54 624（38 422 ～78 875）例,MSM人群估计数为265 453（162 586～506 520）例,性病就诊者估计数为53 555 （31 256 ～ 98 057）例,吸毒者估计数为94 244（66 475～139 349）例,孕产妇估计数为70 062（39 942 ～ 136 584）例,普通人群估计数为2441 484（1 165 319 ～5 103 924）例.普通人群估计数占梅毒感染总估计数的81.94％,MSM人群估计数占8.91％.估计2011年全国15～49岁年龄组人群梅毒发病人数为1 489 711例,15 ～49岁年龄组人群梅毒感染率为0.40％.本研究估计的梅毒发病例数为报告病例数的5.2倍.结论 应用Workbook法进行全国梅毒疫情估计,其方法学具有科学可行性,其估计结果对梅毒防治具有重要意义.
Objective To apply workbook method for the estimation on syphilis epidemic in China.Methods The data on population size and syphilis infection were collected by national STD and HIV/AIDS surveillance system among six populations aged from 15 to 49 years old in 31 provinces in 2011.Six groups included female sex workers （FSW）,men who have sex with men （MSM）,STD clinic attendee,drug users,pregnant women and general population.Meta analysis was applied to pool the different prevalence of the same population in the different sentinels of each province,and then workbook method was applied to estimate the syphilis epidemic in China.Results The estimation of syphilis epidemic（95% CI） was 2 979 422（1 504 000-6 063 309） among the populations aged 15 to 49 years old in 2011.The estimation among FSW was 54 624 （38 422-78 875）,that of MSM was 265 453 （162 586-506 520）,that of STD clinic attendee was 53 555（31 256-98 057）,that of drug users was 94 244（66 475-139 349）,that of pregnant women was 70 062（39 942-136 584） and that of general population was 2 441 484（1 165 319-5 103 924）.The proportion of general population in the whole estimation of syphilis infection was 81.94%,and that of MSM was 8.91%.The estimation of syphilis incidence was 1 489 711 among 15 to 49 years old,and the estimation of syphilis prevalence was 0.40% in the whole country.The estimation of incidence in this research was 5.2 times as the number of reported cases from China information system for diseases control and prevention.Conclusion Workbook method was a scientific and feasible toolkit for the estimation of syphilis epidemic in China,and the estimation outcomes were greatly significant for syphilis control.
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第8期693-698,共6页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
梅毒
工作簿
疫情估计
Syphilis
Workbook
Epidemic estimation
