摘要
文章基于VAR模型,以2000-2013年的季度数据为样本,实证检验了我国金融业和实体经济动态发展中的相关关系,并得到结论:我国金融业与实体经济具有长期协整和单向granger因果关系,实体经济有力推动金融业发展,而金融业对实体经济发展的促进作用并不明显,两者之间呈现非协同发展关系。在实证检验基础上,进一步分析了该关系背后的经济学原理,提出了促进我国金融业与实体经济协同发展的对策建议。
Based on VAR model, the paper makes an empirical research on the dynamic development relationship between the financial sector and the real economy by taking quarterly data from the year of 2000 to 2013 as samples. The study shows that there is a long-term co-integration and one-way granger relationship between the financial sector and the real economy. The real economy effectively boosts development of the financial sector, while the promotion effect of the financial sector on the real econ- omy is not obvious, which means that the relationship between the financial sector and the real economy is uncoordinated. The paper also carries out a further analysis on the economic principles behind the relationship in the light of the empirical test, and proposes countermeasures to promote the coordinated development between the financial sector and the real economy in China.
出处
《华东经济管理》
CSSCI
2014年第8期52-55,73,共5页
East China Economic Management
基金
国家软科学重大招标项目(2010GXS1D094)
重庆市科委软科学课题(cstc2012cx-rkxa00068)
关键词
金融业
实体经济
非协同发展
VAR模型
wfinancial sector
real economy
uncoordinated development
VAR model
