摘要
利用2000-2012年30个省份的面板数据,实证分析了新型城镇化对经济增长的时空效应及其传导路径。研究结果表明:在控制消费、投资和产业结构升级三个变量的条件下,时间维度上新型城镇化对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,空间维度上对全国和东部地区具有显著正向促进作用,而对中西部地区的经济增长效应系数为正却不显著;接着分析了中西部地区新型城镇化对经济增长的三条潜在传导路径,根据测算的路径强度,发现消费路径和投资路径是新型城镇化推动经济增长的主要途径,但产业结构升级路径对经济增长存在阻碍作用,说明在中西部地区新型城镇化通过产业结构升级来有力推进经济增长还有待时日。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces regions for 2000-2012, this paper empirically analyzes the spatiotemporal effect of new urbanization on economic growth and its conduct path. Results show that new urbanization always has a significant positive impact on economic growth in time dimension, and in spatial dimension it has a significant positive impact in national and eastern regions, while in the central and western regions it has positive coefficient but not significant, when controlling for consumption, investment and the industrial structure upgrading. Then this paper analyzes the three potential paths of new urbanization on economic growth in the central and western regions. Based on path intensity, we find that the consumption and investment paths of new urbanization are the main route to promoting economic growth. However, the path of the industrial structure upgrading hinders the economic growth, which indicates that industrial structure upgrading path of new urbanization strongly promoting economic growth still remains to be seen in the central and western regions.
出处
《商业经济与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第8期48-56,共9页
Journal of Business Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国产业生态经济系统优化与运行机制研究"(12&ZD207)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目"江苏省大学科技园与地方高新园区协同创新体制机制研究"(2013ZDIXM029)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目"我国生态文明建设策略和机制研究"(2242013S40005)
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目"中国新型城镇化的经济发展效应:理论
实证与对策"(KYLX_0074)
关键词
新型城镇化
经济增长效应
时空分异
传导路径
产业结构升级
new urbanization
effect of economic growth
spatiotemporal differentiation
conduct path
industrial structure upgrading
