摘要
目的:评估ABCD、ABCD2、SPI-Ⅱ和ESSEN风险预测评分模型对短暂性脑缺血发作(TIA)高危患者近期及远期进展为脑梗死的预测价值。方法:回顾性分析235例TIA患者ABCD、ABCD2、SPI-Ⅱ和ESSEN评分,随访7d和1年内脑梗死发生率,通过绘制受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)并计算曲线下面积(AUC)以评估4种评分模型的准确性,并与原始模型进行比较,计算相对危险度(RR)。结果:235例TIA患者7d内脑梗死发生率为9.36%,1年内脑梗死发生率为20.43%。7d内AUC,ABCD评分模型为0.70,ABCD2评分模型为0.74,SPI-Ⅱ评分模型为0.67,ESSEN评分模型为0.62;1年内AUC,ABCD评分模型为0.62,ABCD2评分模型为0.62,SPI-Ⅱ评分模型为0.64,ESSEN评分模型为0.65。与原始模型比较,低危组、中危组和高危组患者TIA后7d内RR值,ABCD评分模型分别为0.09、0.92和0.72,ABCD2评分模型分别为0.49、0.59和0.65;TIA后1年内RR值,SPI-Ⅱ评分系统分别为0.58、0.87和0.55,ESSEN评分模型分别为0.11、0.18和0.55。结论:本研究选择的4种风险预测评分模型均可用于中国人群TIA后脑梗死风险评估,其中ABCD2评分模型对短期风险预测具有较大价值,而ESSEN评分模型对于远期风险预测更具价值。
Objective To evaluate the predictive values of ABCD,ABCD2,SPI-Ⅱand ESSEN score models for the patients with high-risk transient ischemic attack（TIA）to develop to cerebral infarction in short and long term.Methods The ABCD,ABCD2,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN scores of 235 cases of TIA patients were retrospectively analyzed.The incidence of cerebral infarction was followed up for 7dand 1year,and the receiver operating characteristic curve（ROC）was drawn to calculate the area under curve（AUC）to assess the accuracy of the score models,and compared with the original model and the relative risk（RR）value was calculated.Results The 7 dincidence and 1year-incidence of cerebral infarction in the 235TIA patients were 9.36%and 20.43%.The AUC of ABCD,ABCD2,SPI-Ⅱand ESSEN models for 7d were 0.70,0.74,0.67,and 0.62.The AUC of 1year were0.62,0.62,0.64,and 0.65.Compared with the orginal models,the RRs for 7d of ABCD score model of the TIA patients in low,middle,and high risk groups were 0.09,0.92,and 0.72;the RRs of ABCD2 score model were 0.49,0.59,and 0.65;the RRs of SPI-Ⅱ score model were 0.58,0.87,and 0.55;the RRs of ESSEN score model were 0.11,0.18,and 0.55.Conclusion ABCD,ABCD2,SPI-Ⅱ and ESSEN score models can be used to assess the risk of cerebral infarction after TIA in Chinese population.The ABCD2 score model is of great value for short-term risk prediction,and the ESSEN score model is more value for long-term risk prediction.
出处
《吉林大学学报（医学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期851-854,共4页
Journal of Jilin University：Medicine Edition
基金
吉林省科技厅科技发展计划项目资助课题(20130206045SF)
关键词
危险性评估
短暂性脑缺血发作
脑梗死
risk assessment
transient ischemic attack
cerebral infarction
