摘要
采用2005年8月—2013年8月的月度数据,运用ARDL-ECM模型和GARCH模型,主要从人民币实际有效汇率和人民币汇率波动风险两个维度来分析人民币汇率变动情况对中国玉米进口的影响方向和影响程度。研究得出人民币实际有效汇率对中国玉米进口有显著地正向影响,而人民币汇率波动风险对其有负向影响,变量间存在长期稳定的关系;并根据分析结果得出政策建议。
This paper researched on the influence of RMB exchange rate volatility on china＇s maize import, mainly from two dimensions, the RMB real effective exchange rate and the RMB exchange rate volatility, by using the monthly data, from August 2005 to August 2013, with ARDL-ECM model and GARCH model. The results of the study showed that real effective exchange rate of RMB had a significant positive effect on China＇s maize import; however, the RMB exchange rate volatility risk had a negative impact, and there was a long-term relationship between variables. Finally based on the results, we put forward some suggestions.
出处
《农业展望》
2014年第6期58-63,共6页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
教育部人文社科基金一般项目(12YJA630143)阶段性成果
