摘要
利用恩施基准站2008—2011年地面实测资料、数值预报产品、上级台站指导产品,采用M(数值模式预报)、E(天气学经验)、D(诊断分析)相结合的方法(简称MED),从气温变化的影响因素如大气稳定度、温度平流、水汽条件等设计具有物理意义的预报因子。或根据需要进行因子的组合叠加利用,并将指导产品直接作为预报因子。利用常规统计预报方法(逐步回归),将高、低温实况作为预报对象来建立地方气温预报模式。结果表明:将天空状况进行分型后建立地方气温MOS预报模型,并对应高低温一般出现时间段来选取数值预报产品因子进行预报,对本地气温预报质量的提高有积极的意义;模型建立过程中,综合采用了MED相结合的方法,并应用了数值预报再加工因子,考虑了天气系统变化对气温的影响,增强了数值预报的解释应用能力;参考客观数值模式产品、上级业务部门指导产品相结合的综合MOS预报方法,建立地方气温MOS预报是提高本地天气预报准确率的有效尝试。检验结果也表明,本地气温MOS预报效果较好,明显高于指导预报,已较好应用于实际业务中。
Based on the observed meteorological data of Enshi Station from 2008 to 2011,numerical forecast products,and superior station guidance,by means of the combined method of M （numerical model forecast）,E （learning experience of weather）,D （diagnostic analysis）,the predictors with atmosphericphysics significance are designed from the aspect of the influencing factors of temperature changes,such as the atmospheric stability,temperature advection,water vapor conditions,etc.; or a combination of factors according to the needs is considered,and the superior guidance products are used as predictors directly.Using the conventional statistical forecast method （stepwise regression）,taking high and low temperature as predictands,the local temperature prediction model is established considering the direct factors influencing the atmospheric temperature.The local temperature MOS forecast model is established after sky condition classification,and the numerical forecast products are selected corresponding to the appearing time of high and low temperature,which is of significance to the quality improvement of local temperature forecasting.During the model building,the combined method and reprocessed numerical forecast factors are used,and the influence of weather variation on air temperature is considered,so the application and interpretation capability of numerical forecast products is enhanced.The comprehensive MOS forecasting referring to the objective numerical model products and superior guidance products is an attempt to improve the local weather forecast accuracy effectively.Test results also show that the local temperature MOS forecast method performed well,with the effectiveness significantly better than guidance forecasting.
出处
《气象科技》
2014年第3期443-450,共8页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目"恩施自治州旅游气象预报服务方法研究"(2012Z04)资助
关键词
气温
MOS预报
数值预报产品
指导预报产品
temperature
MOS forecast
numerical prediction product
superior guidance product
