摘要
运用岭回归原理和方法分析合肥市社会消费品零售额与农村居民收入、城镇居民收入、城镇化率、人口数量的关系。研究表明:对合肥市社会消费品零售额影响最大的是农村居民收入,最小的是城镇化率。这主要是因为农村居民收入增幅大于城镇居民收入增幅,农村消费基础薄弱,农民对社会消费品的刚性需求量大。城镇居民已有较好的消费基础,目前主要是以改善型、享受型消费为主,对社会消费品零售额影响没有农村居民大。
In this paper,ridge regression method is used to analyze the relationship between retail sales of social consumer goods in Hefei and its rural residents’income,urban resident’s income,urbanization rate and population.The results show that rural resident’s income has the largest influence on the retail sales of consumer goods in Hefei,while urbanization rate has the smallest influence.The main reasons are as follows:the increase of rural residents’income is greater than that of urban residents’income,the rural consumption base is weak,and the rigid demand of farmers for social consumer goods is large;while the urban residents have already had a good consumption base,and at present,their consumption mainly focus on goods that can help improve and enjoy their lives,so the influence of urban resident’s income on the retail sales of consumer goods is relatively small compared to the influence of rural residents’income.
作者
舒服华
SHU Fu-hua(School of On-line and Continuing Education,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)
基金
湖北省自然科学基金项目(2017CFB177)
关键词
合肥市
社会消费品零售额
影响因素
岭回归
Hefei City
retail sales of social consumer goods
influencing factors
ridge regression
