摘要
本文把灰色系统灾变预报方法应用到风暴潮预报中 ,对逐年最大风暴潮增水资料确定一个阈值 ζ ,对于年最大风暴潮位资料大于阈值 ζ的年份组成一个序列 ,用一阶线性模型GM (1 ,1 )预报风暴潮灾的出现年份 .结果表明 :用GM (1 ,1 )
This paper makes an application of disaster forecast of grey systems on the storm surge forecasting. We confirm a value of threshold ζ for the data of annual maximum water level caused by storm surge , and set up a year sequence that the water levels are higher than the value of ζ . By means of GM(1,1) method we forecast the years that storm surge disaster happened. The example shows that the results of GM(1,1) method agree well with the years of storm surge disaster happened.
出处
《台湾海峡》
CAS
CSCD
2002年第2期239-242,共4页
Journal of Oceanography In Taiwan Strait
