摘要
当前宏观杠杆率已成为衡量各国债务风险的最重要指标,宏观杠杆率的变化与系统性金融风险之间存在传导机制。本文采取国际货币基金组织统计的40个国家及地区数据,运用面板logit固定效应模型对宏观杠杆率与系统性金融风险之间的关系进行回归检验,实证结果表明,宏观杠杆率与系统性金融风险之间存在非线性关系,当宏观杠杆率偏低时,其对系统性金融风险的形成具有明显的抑制作用;在中等和偏高阶段,宏观杠杆率对系统性金融风险的形成具有明显的增强作用,并且宏观杠杆率数值越高,其对系统性金融风险的增强作用就越大,二者之间呈现正反馈效应。结构性去杠杆对我国仍然非常重要,政府应当严控宏观杠杆率引致的系统性金融风险,实现结构性去杠杆的目标。
The current macro-leverage ratio has become the most important indicator to measure the debt risk of various countries.There is a transmission mechanism between the change of macro leverage ratio and systemic financial risk.This paper adopts the data of 40 countries and regions of the International Monetary Fund(IMF)statistics,and uses the panel logit fixed effect model to conduct a regression test on the relationship between macro-leverage ratio and systemic financial risk.The empirical results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between the macro-leverage ratio and systemic financial risk.When the macro-leverage ratio is low,it has a significant inhibitory effect on the formation of systemic financial risks.In the medium and high stages,the macro-leverage ratio has a significant enhancement to the formation of systemic financial risks.The higher the macro-leverage ratio is,the greater effect the systemic financial risk will be.The government should strictly control the systemic financial risks caused by macro-leverage and achieve the goal of structural de-leverage.
作者
王桂虎
WANG Gui-hu(Institute of Finance,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Bijing 100028)
出处
《郑州大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期53-58,156,共7页
Journal of Zhengzhou University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家社科基金重点课题"中国城市规模
空间聚集与管理模式研究"(项目编号:15AJL013)
中国博士后科学基金资助项目"中国非金融企业杠杆率的异质性估算与周期性背离研究"(项目编号:2018M631663)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目"河南省企业宏观杠杆率引致系统性金融风险的传导机制与防范措施研究"(项目编号:2018CJJ096)
