摘要
作为人类社会赖以生存的物质基础之一,能源是支撑经济发展和社会进步的重要资源。同时,能源消费也是影响气候变化和区域环境质量的重要因素。因此,开展区域能源消费的情景分析,对于合理控制能源消费总量和制定区域能源政策,具有重要现实意义。以东北老工业基地的典型代表辽宁省为案例,运用灰色关联方法定量分析了2000—2014年区域能源消耗与经济增长间的相关性。结果表明:辽宁省能源消耗总量与经济发展之间的关联度为0.93,属于能源驱动型发展方式;基于灰色模型GM(1,1)开展了2015—2029年的能源消费情景分析,发现第二产业的能源消耗量最大且呈指数上升趋势;基于因子分解法和节能指数方法开展区域节能效率潜力判断,认为区域节能方向主要是结构节能和技术节能;最后提出了促进能源可持续转型的若干建议。
As one of the fundamental resources for the survival of human society,energy is an important resource for sustaining economic development and societal progress. Energy consumption is one of the important factors which would trigger climate change and affect the quality of regional environment. Therefore,a situational analysis of regional energy consumption is important for controlling the overall energy consumption and making a reasonable regional energy policy. Taking Liaoning,an old industrial base in Northeastern China,as an example,we used the method of grey relational analysis to quantitatively analyze the correlation of energy consumption and economic growth between 2000 and 2014. The degree of correlation was 0.93,suggesting an energy-driven-model of development. Based on grey model GM( 1,1),we conducted a situational analysis of expected energy consumption between 2015 and 2029. The results showed that the secondary industry would consume the greatest amount of energy. The consumption would show an exponentially rising trend. Based on the factoring method as well as energy-saving index,we evaluated the potential and efficiency of regional energy conservancy. We concluded that regional energy conservancy should be structural energy conservancy and technology-based energy conservancy. We proposed recommendations towards sustainable transition of energy.
作者
姜璐
陈兴鹏
孔云霄
张子龙
薛冰
JIANG Lu;CHEN Xing-peng;KONG Yun-xiao;ZHANG Zi-long;XUE Bing(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences/Institute for Circular Economy in Western China,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000, China;Key Laboratory for Environment Computation and Sustainability of Liaoning Province, Shen-yang 110016,China;Key Laboratory of Pollution Ecology and Environmental Engineering,Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期302-308,共7页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41471116
41301652和41701142)
"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金"项目(lzujbky-2017-it85)
四川省社会科学重点研究基地--四川循环经济研究中心项目(XHJJ-1611)资助
关键词
人地关系
能源规划
灰色模型
因子分解
东北地区
human-natural relationship
energy plan
grey model
factorization approach
Northeast China
