摘要
基于2012-2016年的火灾统计数据,利用变异系数和基尼系数,研究9类起火原因在省份、场所、区域、月份和时段的聚集性和热点。结果表明,火灾空间聚集性显著,火灾省份分布呈强聚集性,热点集中在浙江、辽宁、江苏和山东等;场所变异系数和基尼系数分别大于1和0.75,呈现十分显著的聚集性,每类火灾中20%场所均贡献80%以上火灾,住宅火灾风险突出;区域分布上,热点多集中在农村。火灾的时间聚集性较差,玩火和静电引起的火灾月份聚集性显著,玩火有一定时段聚集性。
The aggregation and hot spot of 9 kinds of fire causes is analyzed by considering five space-time factors including the province,place,region,month and hour,based on the fire statistics from 2012 to 2016.The fire shows a remarkable spatial aggregation.The fire hot spots of provinces are Zhejiang,Liaoning,Jiangsu and Shandong,etc.All the coefficient of variation and Gini coefficients of place factor are greater than 1.0 and 0.75,respectively, showing great aggregation.20% of the places contribute 80% of each kind of fires.The fire risk of residential buildings is very high. For region factor,most of the first hot spot of fire is rural area. The temporal aggregation of fire is not significant.Playing with fire and static fire show a remarkable month aggregation.Playing with fire presents a certain time aggregation.
作者
李国辉
郭歌
赵力增
LI Ouo-hui;GUO Ge;ZHAO Li-zeng(Tianjin Fire Research Institute of MEM,Tianjin 300381, China)
出处
《消防科学与技术》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第1期141-145,共5页
Fire Science and Technology
基金
公安部技术研究计划项目"多源消防数据挖掘技术及风险分析研究"(2017JSYJC37)
关键词
火灾原因
时空分布
聚集性
变异系数
基尼系数
fire cause
spatial and temporal distribution
aggregation
coefficient of variation
Gini coefficient
