摘要
从空间计量经济学的研究视角出发,运用全域空间自相关Moran’s I指数,考察2002—2016年中国对中亚地区出口的空间相关性,同时构建两种不同空间权重矩阵下的空间面板杜宾模型,进一步分析中国对外出口的影响因素。结果表明,中国的出口集聚具有空间集群特征,对当地经济增长具有较强的空间依赖性。中国出口集聚对当地的经济发展水平影响显著,当忽略空间因素时,影响程度会被高估;当考虑经济因素的空间权重时,其他地区出口集聚对本地区经济增长的回流效应居于主导地位,所以出口集聚的空间负溢出效应显著;当加入地理因素后,回流效应会被其他地区出口集聚对本地区经济增长的扩散效应抵消,负的空间溢出效应显著性降低,出口的空间溢出效应会得到更精确的描述。
From the perspective of spatial econometrics,this paper uses the global spatial autocorrelation Moran's I index to investigate the spatial correlation of China's exports to central Asia from 2002 to 2016,and builds the spatial panel durbin model under two different spatial weight matrix to further analyze the influencing factors of China's exports.The results show that China's export agglomeration is characterized by spatial cluster and has strong spatial dependence on local economic growth.The agglomeration of China's exports has a significant impact on the local,economic development level.When space factors are ignored,the impact degree will be overestimated.When the spatial weight of economic factors is taken into account,the backflow effect of export agglomeration in other regions plays a dominant role in regional economic growth,so the spatial negative spillover effect of export agglomeration is significant.When geographical factors are added,the backflow effect will be offset by the diffusion effect of export agglomeration in other regions to local economic growth,and the negative spatial spillover effect will be significantly reduced,and the spatial spillover effect of export will be more accurately described.
作者
李姗姗
Li Shanshan(Hunan University of Science and Technology,Hunan Xiangtan 411201)
出处
《对外经贸》
2018年第10期33-37,共5页
FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE
