摘要
国际原油市场正处于再平衡进程中,局势复杂多变.2017年世界原油新增储量达到历史新低,全球已探明原油储量为2308×10^8t,相比2016年减少了6530×10^4t,为2000年以来首次下降.OPEC为了实现“减产提价”,原油产量不断下降,而与此同时,北美地区则因为页岩油的开采,产量从2007年的6.3×10^8t增长到2017年的9.2×10^8t.在原油需求方面,OECD国家原油消费量逐年下降,过去10年原油需求增量基本来自非OECD国家,中国和印度领跑全球原油消费增速.我国原油消费量不断增长,但原油产量却在下降,对外依存度持续上升,而长期存在的“亚洲溢价”给我国造成了大量的经济损失.在此背景下,我国一直保持着多元化的原油进口,同时逐步放开了对原油进口配额的管制,上海原油期货的推出也大大提高了我国在国际石油市场上的话语权,但中美贸易摩擦加剧给原油贸易带来新的不确定性.为了保障原油进口安全,我国应进一步加强国际间合作,持续推进原油进口来源多元化;完善原油期货市场配套,推动原油贸易健康发展;同时要改善观念,积极应对贸易摩擦.
Now the international crude oil market is in the process of rebalancing,and its situation is complex and changeable.In 2017,the new reserve of world crude oil reached a record low.The world's proven crude oil reserves were 230.8 billion tons,a decrease of 65.3 million tons compared with 2016,and it was the first decline since 2000.In order to raise the price of crude oil by cutting production,OPEC's crude oil production has been declining,while the crude oil output in North America has increased from 630 million tons in2007 to 920 million tons in 2017 due to the exploitation of shale oil.In terms of crude oil demand,the crude oil consumption of OECD countries has declined year by year.In the past 10 years,the incremental demand for crude oil has mainly come from non-OECD countries,and the sustained growth of global crude oil consumption appeared in China and India.In China,the crude oil consumption is increasing while the crude oil production is declining,the foreign trade dependence continues to rise,and the long-standing Asian Premium has caused a lot of economic losses to China.In this context,China has maintained a diversified import of crude oil and gradually liberalized the control of crude oil import quotas.The introduction of Shanghai crude oil fu-tures has also greatly enhanced China ′ s voice in international oil market,but the intensified trade frictions between China and the United States has brought new uncertainties to the crude oil trade.In order to ensure the safety of crude oil import,China should further strengthen international cooperation,continuously promote the diversification of crude oil import sources,improve the matching market of crude oil futures,promote the healthy development of crude oil trade,and also improve the concepts and actively deal with trade frictions.
作者
胡紫阳
朱彤
杨军杰
汪如朗
Hu Ziyang;Zhu Tong;Yang Junjie;Wang Rulang(Zhejiang Petrochemical Trading Center,Zhoushan Zhejiang 316000)
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2018年第12期8-15,共8页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
原油贸易
原油消费
多元化进口
进口配额
原油期货
贸易摩擦
crude oil trade
crude oil consumption
diversified import
import quota
crude oil futures
trade friction
