摘要
本文结合2003年至2014年的季度数据,使用误差修正模型和脉冲响应分析等计量经济方法分析我国货币供应量对农产品价格的影响。通过脉冲响应函数结果,说明农产品价格在面对未预期到的货币冲击时,农作物价格变化的速率大于工业品价格的变化速率,并且影响的时段更长。研究说明,我国农作物价格与货币供应量在长期内存在着稳定关系,但在短期农作物面对货币冲击时,确实存在价格"超调"。以上表明,从长远来看,我国农作物价格上升和货币供应量的增长走势一样;但在短期我国农作物价格变化的原因是并不全是货币供应量的变化。
Through the sample data from the first quarter of 2003 to the forth quarter of 2014,I used error correction model,impulse response to analyze how the money supply affects price of agricultural products in China.I also analyzed the impact of monetary supply on the short-term fluctuation and long-term trend of the price of agricultural products.Using vector auto-regression model and impulse response function of the test results show that under the monetary supply shocks,agricultural prices impact industrial reaction faster, greater declines ,but more short duration.The research concludes that,in the long run,there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's agricultural prices andmonetary supply ;In the short term,in the case of a hit from the monetary supply,there is agricultural prices overshoot phenomenon.This means that our country agricultural prices upward trend in long-term is consistent with the growth of the monetary supply, but the short-term volatility is not entirely due to the changes in the money supply,but related to the characteristics of the agricultural market itself.
作者
徐艳艳
XU Yan-yan(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Sci-tech University,310018,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《特区经济》
2018年第12期136-138,共3页
Special Zone Economy
关键词
农产品价格
货币供应量
超调
货币政策
agricultural prices
monetary supply
oershoot
monetary policy
