摘要
Incarvillea younghusbandii is a well-known Tibetan medicinal plant with considerable development and research value distributed widely throughout the Tibetan plateau.It is important to study spatial distribution patterns of the plant in order to develop effective protection measures.Based on field survey work and environmental data, the potential geographic distribution of Incarvillea younghusbandii was delineated using a Maximum Entropy (Maxent)model with 28environmental variables that screened for climate,topography,human activity and biological factors.Our results showed that the main geographic range of Incarvillea younghusbandii included the valley between the Yarlung Zangbo river and the Duoxiong Zangbo river,the valley in the middle section of the Himalaya Mountains,and the area between the north side of the east section of the Himalayas and the south bank of the middle reach of the Yarlung Zangbo river.Distribution may spread to parts of the eastern Himalayas.The Jackknife test indicated that soil types,ratio of precipitation to air temperature,extreme atmospheric pressure differences and annual precipitation were the most important predictive factors for the model,while other variables made relatively small contributions.
藏波罗花Incarvillea younghusbandii是著名的藏药之一,极具开发和研究价值,但准确预测其潜在地理分布一直是目前尚未解决的关键问题。本文结合实地调查与现有研究数据,以气候和地表覆盖为环境变量,利用Maxent模型与GIS工具,对藏波罗花在西藏地区的潜在地理分布进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)Maxent模型对藏波罗花的潜在地理分布具有较高的预测精度,ROC曲线下面积(Area under the curve,AUC),训练AUC值可达0.994,测试AUC值可达0.996;(2)土壤类型、年降水量和生长繁育期降水量是影响藏波罗花生长分布的最重要环境因子;(3)藏波罗花在西藏有广泛的适生性,雅鲁藏布江与多雄藏布河间的山谷地带、喜马拉雅山脉中段地带河谷区和喜马拉雅山东段北侧与雅鲁藏布江中游南岸相间地带是目前主要的适生区,而喜马拉雅山脉东部部分地区可能会成为藏波罗花的扩散分布区。
基金
National Key Technologies Research and Development Program of China(2014BAL07B02)
Tibet Autonomous Region Science-technology Support Projects(201DKJGX01-38)
