摘要
评估和预测有代表性城市的碳排放情况,对总结低碳发展规律、制定低碳发展规划、加强政策指导具有重要意义。浙江是我国应对气候变化的先行示范区之一,其设区市类型各异,又分为低碳试点城市和非试点城市,评估分析各城市的低碳发展情况,可以为浙江及其他省市的低碳发展提供指导。为此,文章利用中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所全新开发的低碳城市建设评价指标体系对浙江省各设区市的低碳发展成效进行定量评估;在此基础上选择碳排放量较大的工业、建筑、交通、消费四个分领域进行碳排放收敛分析,预测碳排放规律。研究结果显示:(1)2015年浙江省各设区市的低碳水平相对2010年有了整体提升,不同类型城市低碳发展差距逐渐缩小;(2)低碳试点城市在取得积极成效的同时,自身低碳水平提升的速度开始变慢,而非试点城市的低碳发展速度较快;(3)各设区市在工业、建筑、交通、消费领域的碳排放不存在绝对β收敛,试点城市存在俱乐部收敛和条件β收敛。根据研究结果提出发挥浙江低碳示范引领作用,加快构建各具特色的生态文明体系,挖掘绿色新动能,对接国家、省级战略以推动高质量发展,明确各城市发展定位、打造绿色、低碳、宜居的现代化城市的建议。
Evaluating and convergence analyzing the low-carbon development situation of representative cities is of great significance for summarizing low-carbon development rules,formulating low-carbon development plans,and strengthening policy guidance.Zhejiang is one of China's pioneering demonstration areas to cope with climate change,which includes different types of cities and low-carbon pilot cities and normal cities.The evaluation and analysis of low-carbon development conditions in each city is of great significance to other provinces and low-carbon development of the same type of cities. Therefore,the paper uses the newly developed low-carbon city construction evaluation index system developed by the Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences to quantitatively evaluate the low-carbon development effectiveness of each district and city in Zhejiang Province.On this basis,the convergence theory and model are used to analyze the carbon emission convergence conditions of the four sub areas of industry,construction,transportation and consumption.The results of the study show that:(1)In 2015,the low-carbon levels in various districts and cities in Zhejiang Province have improved overall compared to 2010,and the gaps in low-carbon development in different types of cities have gradually narrowed;(2)While the low-carbon pilot cities have achieved positive results,the speed of their own low-carbon levels has begun to slow down,but the low carbon development speed in the non-pilot cities is faster than that in the pilot cities;(3)Absolute β convergence does not exist in the carbon emissions of industries,buildings,transportation,and consumption in each district and city,and there is club convergence and convergence in condition β in pilot cities.According to the results of the study,it is suggested to speed up the construction of a distinctive ecological civilization system,to excavate green new kinetic energy,to connect the national and provincial strategies to promote high quality dev
作者
陈楠
庄贵阳
CHEN Nan;ZHUANG Guiyang(Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2018年第12期14-21,28,共9页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"我国低碳城市建设评价指标体系研究"(15ZDA055)
中国社会科学院创新工程重大专题"推进新时代中国特色生态文明建设与绿色发展战略研究"(2017YCXZD007)
第61批中国博士后科学基金面上资助"基于增加值贸易核算的贸易隐含碳研究--以中日贸易为例"(2017M611097)
第11批中国博士后科学基金特别资助"中日对一带一路沿线国家贸易隐含碳分析"(2018T110179)
关键词
指标体系
成效评估
收敛性分析
index system
effectiveness evaluation
convergence analysis
