摘要
基于30个省市自治区的面板数据,采用Malmquist指数分解法和两步GMM回归方法,从回弹效应视角分析技术进步影响能源消费的直接和间接效应,并将回弹效应分解为能源价格效应、城市化效应、能源结构效应和产权结构效应。研究发现,广义技术进步对能源消费的影响呈现倒U型关系,狭义技术进步对能源消费的影响呈现正U型关系。技术进步虽然会通过促进能源低碳化减少能源消费,但也会通过加速城市化扩张和加剧市场竞争增加能源需求,产生回弹效应。相比之下,能源价格由于受到政府宏观调控,对回弹效应的影响不显著。
Based on the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities of China from 2000—2015,Malmquist index and two-step GMM regression are used to analyze the direct and indirect effects of technological progress on energy consumption from the perspective of rebound effect. The rebound effect is decomposed into energy price effect,urbanization effect,energy structure effect and property right structure effect. The results show that the impact of generalized technological progress on energy consumption has an inverted-U shaped relationship,while narrow technological progress presents a positive U-shaped relationship. Technological progress will not only save energy by promoting low carbonization of the energy structure,but also increase energy consumption by accelerating urban expansion and marketization of the construction industry. In contrast,due to the government’s macro-control of energy prices,its impact on the rebound effect is not significant.
作者
高明
余玲
吴雪萍
Gao Ming;Yu Ling;Wu Xueping(Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350108,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第22期118-127,共10页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
福建省高校新型特色智库"福建绿色发展研究院"(201705)
福建省中国特色社会主义理论体系研究中心重大委托项目"中国生态文明试验区(福建)产业绿色发展新动能研究"(2017TWZ007)
福建省软科学研究项目"福建省污水治理产业技术发展预测与升级对策研究"(2017R010062)
关键词
回弹效应
技术进步
形成路径
rebound effect
technological progress
forming path
