摘要
基于概率分析的可靠度分析方法考虑了滑坡岩土参数的变异性与不确定性,被广泛应用于滑坡的稳定性评价.在众多的可靠度分析法中由于Monte-Carlo法受问题条件限制少、计算结果容易收敛和适应性强等优点被广泛采用.本文采用Monte-Carlo随机抽样法,通过2 000次模拟抽样对昭君村滑坡在两种工况下的可靠度进行了对比分析.滑坡可靠度分析表明,在天然状况下,昭君村滑坡的次级滑体平均稳定系数为1.036,失效概率为12.85%,主滑体平均稳定系数为1.054,失效概率为12.1%;当对滑坡施加降雨雨条件时,昭君村滑坡的次级滑体的平均稳定系数减小为1.014,失效概率增大为32.15%,主滑坡平均稳定系数减小为1.011,失效概率增大为41.00%.
The reliability analysis method based on probability analysis takes into account the variability and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters of landslides;and it is widely used in the evaluation of the stability of landslides.In many reliability analysis methods,the Monte Carlo method is widely used due to its limited problem conditions,easy convergence of calculation results and strong adaptability.In this paper,Monte Carlo random sampling method is adopted to analyze the reliability of Zhaojuncun landslide under two conditions through 2000simulations.Through simulation,it is found that in the natural state,the average stability coefficient of the secondary landslide of Zhaojuncun landslide is 1.036;the failure probability is 12.85%, the average stability coefficient of the main landslide is 1.054;and the failure probability is 12.1%.When rainfall conditions are applied to landslides,the average stability coefficient of the secondary landslide is reduced to 1.014,the failure probability is increased to 32.15% the average stability factor of the main landslide is reduced to 1.011;and the failure probability is increased to 41.00%.
作者
龚超
易武
雷德鑫
柳青
管琪
Gong Chao;Yi Wu;Lei Dexin;Liu Qing;Guan Qi(National Field Observation &Research Station of Landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir Area of Yangtze River,China Three Gorges Univ.,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Collaborative Innovation Center for Geo-Hazard&Eco-Environment in Three Gorges Area,Yichang 443002,China;Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention&Mitigation of Hubei Province,China Three Gorges Univ.,Yichang 443002,China)
出处
《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第6期35-38,共4页
Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences
基金
湖北省自然科学基金项目(2017CFB436)
湖北省水电工程智能视觉监测重点实验室开放基金(2016KLA02)
关键词
昭君村滑坡
可靠度分析
蒙特卡罗随机抽样法
Zhaojuncun landslide
reliability analysis
Monte Carlo random sampling method
