摘要
根据珠江三角洲感潮河段年最高洪潮水位存在长期上升趋势的事实 ,提出了河口区感潮河段洪潮水位频率分析一种新的计算方法 ,新方法的分析结果表明 ,未来不同年代同频率的设计洪潮水位各不相同 ,也存在相应的长期变化趋势。以灯笼山站为例 ,新方法计算的 2 0 30年和 2 0 5 0年的百年一遇设计洪潮水位分别为 3 12m和3 2 8m ,比传统频率分析方法计算的结果分别高出 0 2 4m和 0 40m。建议有关部门在制定河口区的防洪标准时 ,根据洪潮水位的长期变化趋势作相应的动态调整 。
Analysis of yearly peak water level data of Denglongshan station at a tidal river of the Pearl River Delta confirms that the ascending trend of water level does exist, which measures 7 971mm/a. According to such trend in estuary area, a new frequency analysis method is put forward. Analysis result by using new method indicates that the designed water levels in future at the same frequency will change in different years as the yearly peak water level changes. Taking Denglongshan as an example, the changing trend of designed water level is also +7 971mm/a. In 2030 and in 2050, the designed water levels (frequency =1%) will be 3 12m and 3 28m, respectively, 0.24m and 0.40m higher than that (2 88m) by traditional frequency analysis method. It is suggested that the designed water level for prevention of flood and tide disasters be timely adjusted according to the ascending trend of yearly peak water level.
出处
《热带地理》
2001年第4期342-345,共4页
Tropical Geography
基金
国家 1997年度软科学指导性计划 (Z970 0 2 )
广东省自然科学基金重点项目 ( 1997)
