摘要
某些非线性确定性系统表现出混沌行为，由这些系统产生的时间序列又表现出随机性 ，但是，这些混沌时间序列在短期内可有较为精确的预测，可以为其建立确定性的预测模型 。为了探求负荷时间序列中的混沌特性，作者首先介绍计算时间序列中的多种混沌特征数的 方法，在发现华中电网发电负荷时间序列中的混沌特性的基础上，给出一种基于混沌理论的 局部预测算法。该预测方法的优点是，如果时间序列比较长，就可以通过某些参数的调整来 控制预测精度。最后以华中电网的发电负荷为例检验了本文中的算法，最终的预测模型的预 测效果良好。
Certain deterministic non-linear systems may show chaotic behavior. Time series derived from such systems seem stochastic, however, these chaotic ti me series can be predicted precisely in a short term, thus, by which a determini stic model can be constructed. To search chaos in load time series, the algorith m of several chaos indexes in time series is presented firstly. Based on the ris ing of chaos in generation load time series of Central China Power Grid, a local prediction model is established based on chaos theory. The advantage of this me thod is that the predicted error can be controlled by adjusting some parameters if user has a very long time series. Taking the generation load time series of C entral China Power Grid for example, the presented algorithm is checked and the predicted result is perfect.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第10期13-16,共4页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50079006)~~
关键词
电力系统
负荷预报
混沌系统
时间序列分析
chaotic dynamic system
short term loads
Lyapunov exponent
correlation dimension
