摘要
根据荆州市 1 980～ 1 998年共 1 9年棉铃虫发生情况、棉花生育指标的系统调查数据以及有关气象资料 ,在相关分析的基础上 ,采用模糊数学方法 ,定量地描述了棉铃虫主害代发生量与上代高峰卵量、7月 1 5日青铃及 4月下旬至 7月均温之间的关系 ,揭示了江汉平原棉区棉铃虫主害代的发生规律 ,为其防治提供了理论根据。同时 ,运用模糊数学区间权重综合评判法对主害代发生程度进行了预测预报的研究 ,拟合率达 1 0 0 % ,预报1 999年荆州和天门两地 。
The study showed that the egg density in major generation of cotton bollworm is greatly related to the peak egg density in pre generation, cotton boll number at July 15,the accumulation of the temperture average in the last ten days of April, and the average temperature monthly in May, June and July was quantitatively described with fuzzy analysis method, respectively. It was based on the factors selected from the cotton bollworm population density,cotton growth status and weather information during 1980~1998 by classic statastic analysis methods. The fuzzy formulation used to predicate the cotton bollworm population density of the major generation in 1999 in Tianmen and Jingzhou. It correspondenced with actural situation.
出处
《棉花学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第3期153-157,共5页
Cotton Science
基金
国家"九五"重点科技攻关项目! ( 96-0 0 5-0 1 -0 4 -3)
湖北省重点科技攻关项目! ( 96IP1 1 0 2 )
