摘要
政府财政支出政策对居民消费的影响一直是国内外学者关注的重点。运用平稳性检验、协整关系检验、VAR模型分析、脉冲响应分析等方法，采用我国1985～2011年的相关数据对财政支农支出对农村居民消费的影响进行实证研究的结果表明：在长期范围内，财政支农支出对农村居民消费具有微弱的挤入效应；在短期范围内，财政支农支出对农村居民消费同样具有挤入效应，但具有一定的滞后性。当前，政府应实施积极的财政政策，加大对农村的财政支出力度，以扩大农村居民消费，拉动经济增长。
The influence of fiscal expenditure policies on residents＇ consummation is one of the focuses of international and domestic academics. By using some methods including stationary test, co-integration test, VAR model and impulse response function and the data from 1985 to 2011 in China, the research shows that fiscal agriculture expenditures produce weak crowding-in effect on the rural residents＇ consumption in the long term, but the former produce delayed crowding-in effect on the latter in the short term. Therefore the government should carry out a proactive fiscal policy and increase fiscal tion and stimulate economic growth. agriculture expenditure to expand rural residents＇ consump tion and stimulate economic growth.
出处
《税务与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期19-24,共6页
Taxation and Economy
关键词
财政支农支出
农村居民消费
挤入效应
协整检验
VAR模型
fiscal agriculture expenditure
rural residents＇ consumption
crowding-in effect
co-integration test
VAR model
