摘要
在本项研究中 ,我们探讨了大气 CO2 加倍和气候变化条件下 ,中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能的变化。与多数研究不同的是 ,我们耦合了两个以地理空间为参照的生态系统模型 ,即生物地理模型 (KBIOME)和生物地球化学模型 (TEM) ,用此研究现状和未来的环境下 ,中国的植被分布和年净初级生产力 (N PP)的状况 ,我们采用 3个大气环流模型 ,(GFDL - Q ,GISS和 OSU )预测的结果代表未来潜在气候变化。3个气候模型的预测都表明未来的中国将变得更温暖并总体上更湿润。耦合的模型预测中国陆地生态系统的结构与功能都将产生十分显著的变化。植被的变迁表现为 :1)中国东部森林带北移 ,温带常绿阔叶林面积扩大 ,较南的森林类型取代较北的类型 ;2 )森林和草地的总面积增加 ,这是作为取代干旱灌木林、沙漠和高山苔原的结果。年净初级生产力在大气 CO2 加倍和气候变化条件下 ,增加 30 %左右。与其它研究不同的另一点是 ,我们可以进一步区分生产力变化的原因。在所增加的生产力中 ,12 %～ 2 1%是源于生态系统的功能变化 ,即 CO2 升高和气候条件改变的直接影响 ;而 11%～ 17%是源于生态系统的结构变化 ,即由较高产的生态系统取代较低产的生态系统的结果。这项研究预测了未来中国植被和生产力潜在的变化并给出了变化的范围 ,?
China, a country with large landmass and one-fifth of the global human-population, is an important location for scientific assessment of vulnerability to climate change. In this study, we explored both structural and functional responses of terrestrial ecosystems in China to changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2. We coupled two geographically referenced ecosystem models, a biogeography model, KBIOME, and a biogeochemistry model, TEM, to investigate vegetation distribution and annual NPP under contemporary and altered environmental conditions. We used three GCM projected climate scenarios (GFDL-Q,GISS and OSU) as future conditions for the model simulations. The three GCM scenarios all suggest a warmer and generally wetter climate in China's future. The coupled models predict significant responses of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function. The vegetation transition is shown as: 1) a northward shift of the forest zone in eastern China, with an expansion in temperate broadleaf evergreen forests, and the replacement of northern forests by more southerly types; and 2) increases in the total forested areas and grasslands at the expense of arid shrublands, desert and tundra. The annual net primary production of all terrestrial ecosystems will increase around 30% with the new climate equilibria and doubled atmospheric CO 2 We calculate that the increase in NPP is partially due to the positive functional response of NPP (12%-21%) resulting from changed climate and doubled CO 2, and partially due to the positive structure response of NPP (11%-17%) associated with the vegetation transition from less productive ecosystems to more productive ecosystems. This study presents the estimates of a range of vegetation changes and NPP responses and provides useful information that depicts potential changes in China's future.
出处
《植物生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2001年第2期175-189,共15页
Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology
