摘要
山区城市在城镇化、粮食安全、生态保护的多重要求下,有必要探索将基本农田以外的低丘缓坡山地开发为建设用地的可行性和限制性。研究选取涵盖景观风险和灾害风险的共12个空间化指标,基于有序加权平均(ordered weighted averaging,OWA)方法,以大理白族自治州为例进行低丘缓坡区域建设开发适宜性评价。通过设置不同位序权重表征评价者偏好,结果表明:在指标风险程度的可信度较高的情况下,农用地、城镇、断裂带、河流等高风险指标权重被加大,空间特征明显;在指标风险程度的可信度较低的情况下,评价结果的空间均质性增强。通过模拟城镇建设导向、维持现有政策、风险控制导向3种适宜性分区情景,得出在城镇建设导向下应优先开发中小城镇,在风险控制导向下应优先保证大城市合理扩展。评价结果可以描述在城市的不同发展阶段如何构建政策权衡后的城镇化空间格局,满足了不同决策思路下的建设用地开发布局需求。
Under the multiple requirements of urbanization,food security and ecosystem management,it is necessary to explore the feasibilities and limitations on how to develop building land on gentle hillside in mountain cities. In the process of mountain development,the ecological sensitive area should be prevented from human interferences and human health from disaster threats. In this study,12 spatial indices were selected which can represent the landscape and disaster risks in order to find the suitable degree of building land development on gentle hillside. Ordered weighted averaging（ OWA） operators are usually used to model a family of parameterized decision strategies,which can be applied to route planning to provide more realistic results. In this method the optimistic degree can be quantified by the ordered weight. In an optimistic preference,the function of the relatively important indices is magnified; while in a pessimistic preference,the importance is relatively ignored. OWA algorithm can be used to conduct the scenario simulations of the feasibility of various construction land under different preferences,which is apparently able to reduce the impact of a single result of a subjective perception by decision-makers,and thus can well reflect the changes of evaluation result led by the slight adjustment of regional policies. In this study,Dali Bai Nationality Autonomous Prefecture was chosen as the study area,and OWA operators were adopted to measure the suitability of building land construction on gentle hillside. By setting up different ordered weights,scenarios can be set with the quantified optimistic or pessimistic preference of the decision makers. The result showed thatin the optimistic scenario,the characteristics of high risk indices like farm land,urban,fault zone,rivers can be obviously detected spatially; in the pessimistic scenario where the degree of reliability for risk indices was decreased,the spatial homogeneity was enhanced on the result layer. Then,three scenarios were built up by the OWA
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第12期3188-3197,共10页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费课题(201311001-2)
关键词
低丘缓坡
建设开发适宜性
有序加权平均
情景分析
gentle hillside
suitability of building land consolidation
ordered weighted averaging
scenario analysis
