摘要
物流活动是完成进出口贸易的重要途径,对于拉动进出口贸易具有极其重要的现实意义;同时,进出口贸易增长可以推动物流产业发展。本文利用全国层面和30个省(直辖市、自治区)面板两级数据,应用协整分析方法和Granger因果检验对全国层面二者关系进行了实证分析,并且,建立了30个省(直辖市、自治区)面板变系数回归模型,计算物流对各个省(直辖市、自治区)进出口贸易的影响程度。研究表明:进出口贸易与物流之间存在长期均衡关系,短期和长期内物流发展都是进出口的格兰杰因果关系;不同省份(直辖市、自治区)的物流发展对进出口贸易影响程度存在差异,整体呈现沿东中西部递减的趋势。因此,今后在进一步加大进出口贸易发展的同时,做好不同区域间物流产业的协调发展,实现物流产业与进出口贸易的良性互动,对于整个国民经济可持续发展具有重要意义。
The logistics activity, the important way to complete the import and export trades, is of great importance for stimulating import and export trades. At the same time, import and export trade growth can promote the development of logistics industry. Using two levels of data of the country and 30 provinces （municipalities）, this paper applies the method of co - integration analysis and Granger causality test to make an empirical analysis of the relations between the national levels, and then establish the panel varying coefficient regression model of 30 provinces （municipalities） to calculate the influence degrees of the logistics on import and export trades for each province （municipality） . The research shows that there is a long - term equilibrium rela- tionship between import ＆ export trades and logistics, short - and long - term logistics development is the granger causality of import and export, and the logistics developments of different provinces （municipalities） have different influences on import and export trades, which decline continuously from the east to the central to the west areas. Therefore, it is important to make a coordinated development of logistics industry in different areas and increase the import and export trade development at the same time. It is of great significance for the whole national economy to achieve a sound interaction between logistics industry and import and export trades.
出处
《企业经济》
北大核心
2014年第7期152-155,共4页
Enterprise Economy
基金
江西省社科规划专项项目"江西现代物流业发展研究"(批准号:13ZT01)
江西省新型工业化与城镇化软科学研究基地资助项目"农产品流通体系与区域经济协调发展研究--以江西为例"(批准号:13JG08)
江西省社科规划青年项目"新型城镇视角下农产品物流体系优化研究--以江西省为例"(批准号:13GL33)
关键词
物流发展
进出口贸易
协整分析
面板数据
logistics development
import and export trades
co - integration analysis
panel data
