摘要
消费是影响国民经济持续增长的重要因素。我国消费不足由来已久并受到了各界的广泛关注,而导致我国居民消费不足、消费率下降的原因很多,其中一个不容忽视的因素就是我国人口结构发生了巨大的变化。基于此,可在生命周期理论基础上,对消费函数进行扩展,对家庭跨期消费选择进行建模,并利用省级面板数据将人口年龄结构内生化,利用面板VAR模型来分析少儿抚养比、老年抚养比、居民消费率与经济增长之间的相互关系。研究结果表明,少儿抚养比的下降与老年抚养比的上升是导致我国居民消费率持续下降的一个重要原因;少儿抚养负担过重不利于经济增长,而老龄化对中国经济并未造成不良影响;随着经济的增长,少儿抚养比会降低,老年抚养比会升高,将出现老龄化过程。因此,为更好地促进居民消费,应由严格控制人口增长的扩大内需向允许人口适度增长的扩大内需转变;挖掘老年人口消费需求,使之成为新的经济增长点;合理开发老年人力资源,探索弹性退体制度。
Consumption is one of the important factors having influences on national economic growth; during the long time, consumption in China is insufficient, which attracts more attention. There are lots of causes for that; great change in China＇s demographic structure is one of that causes. Based on the life cycle theory, we expand the consumption function and set up a model for the household consumption choices during a certain period of time. Further, by using the panel data from different provinces from 1982 to 2012, we choose the PVAR method and analyze the relations between young dependency ratio, old dependency ratio, household consumption rate and economic growth. The study indicates that decrease of young dependency ratio and increase of old dependency ratio pulis down the consumption rate, children raising burden is bad for economic growth when it＇s too high, but population aging is found no adverse effects on economic growth. The results also show that with the growing of economy, young dependency ratio will decrease and old dependency ratio will increase, thus population aging will emerge. So, to better promote household consumption, we should change from stimulating domestic demand based on the strict control of demographic growth to stimulating domestic demand based on permitting moderate demographic growth, explore the consumption demand of old people and make that to be the new economic growth point, and rationally exploit the human resources of old people and explore flexible retirement system.
出处
《中国流通经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第7期110-115,共6页
China Business and Market
基金
国家社会科学基金"人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响及对策研究"(项目编号:13CRK024)
国家社会科学基金"边疆民族地区加快经济发展方式转变与改善民生研究"(项目编号:11XMZ050)的部分研究成果
关键词
少儿抚养比
老年抚养比
居民消费率
经济增长
PVAR模型
young dependency ratio
old dependency ratio
household consumption rate
economic growth
PVAR model
