摘要
决策人员长期受到"弹药迷雾"的困扰,针对弹药保障中需求预计涉及多因素、彼此交错的复杂系统问题,基于系统理论,提出了一种融合解释结构模型(ISM)和系统动力学(SD)的弹药消耗预测修正方法。在联合作战背景下对炮兵群弹药消耗问题进行研究,使用解释结构模型研究弹药系统,对弹药保障需求影响因素的相互关系进行了科学的分析和评价,分析了影响弹药保障需求的因素,进而运用系统动力学研究可控制条件下的预测问题。从实验数据分析兵力比对弹药消耗的影响规律,得到有用的结论,并结合战例检验,证明了方法有效,修正了基于任务量公式计算方法的不足,提高了预测的精度。
Ammunition support demand prediction is a complex problem which involved all kinds of intertwined factors.Based on system theory and its derived methods such as ISM（ Interpretative Structure Method）,SD（ System Dynamic）,a gun-ammunition-consumption-prediction-correction-method is proposed in this paper. Under the circumstance for predicting the undermanned ammunition consumption of joint war,the ammunition system is analyzed by ISM for constructing the structure of the factors and its relations which affects ammunition support demand systematically. and then by SD,prediction problem under controllability condition is discussed. After analyzing experiment data,some useful conclusion can be got. As a conclusion,this method is validated by a history example,and the results shows the accuracy of prediction will be enhanced by this method,disadvantage of the Task Quantum method will be solved either. It is a new way of thinking about ammunition prediction.
出处
《指挥控制与仿真》
2014年第3期127-132,共6页
Command Control & Simulation
