摘要
本文运用地理信息系统的探索性空间数据分析方法,考察中国农村人口出生性别比的空间分布格局及其演变特点。在此基础上,运用地理空间效应的空间变系数的地理加权回归模型,考察经济发展、城镇化水平、文化因素、社会保障因素、生育政策等对人口出生性别比的影响,识别各因素对农村人口出生性别比影响的地区差异。研究结果显示:出生性别比在空间上具有集聚效应,表现为高-高和低-低类型,空间自相关结果表明采用传统最小二乘法估算将造成有偏估计;各个解释变量对出生性别比的影响在地区上存在空间差异;经济发展、文化因素与人口出生性别比之间具有倒"U"型关系,现阶段大部分农村地区经济发展水平已越过转折点,但文化程度尚未达到"阈值";当实际生育率高于政策生育率时,会出现计划生育政策实施越严格、出生性别比失衡越严重现象。
Existing literature rarely investigated the spatial heterogeneity of sex ratio at birth in China. Us- ing the methods of exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial analysis of GIS, the paper presents the spa- tial distribution and evolution characteristics of sex ratio at birth in China＇ s rural areas. Applying a spatial- ly varying-coefficient based on geographically weighted regression model, this paper empirically analyzes the spatial heterogeneity influence of economic development, urbanization, cultural factors, social security factors and the family planning policy on sex ratio at birth in China＇s rural areas. The conclusion shows that sex ratio at birth has a characteristics of spatial autocorrelation and spatial accumulative effect. The result means that we can not use the traditional OLS method. The influence of explanatory variables on sex ratio at birth exist difference in different areas. Economic development and sex ratio at birth, cultural factors and sex ratio at birth have an inverted ＂U＂ relationship. At the present, the level of economic development has crossed the turning point in most of rural areas, but the level of education has not reached the threshold. When the actual fertility rate is higher than the policy fertility rate, the more strict family planning policy is implemented, the more serious the imbalance of sex ratio at birth is. Therefore, the government should improve the status of rural women and the rural social pension security system, and severely punish sex selective abortion behavior.
出处
《人口学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期5-15,共11页
Population Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金:收入差距与教育的逻辑关系解析(70803021)
江苏省社科基地重点项目:江苏省新型职业农民培育的需求导向与政策支持研究(13JDA007)
南京农业大学人文社会科学研究基金:生育政策
性别偏好背景下的农村出生性别比失衡问题研究:基于经济学的视角(SK2012003)
关键词
出生性别比
农村
地理加权回归模型
经济发展
生育政策
Sex Ratio at Birth, Rural Areas, Geographically Weighted Regression Model, Economic Development, Family Planning Policy
