摘要
就广东省潜在GDP增长率进行了测算,使用HP滤波法和生产函数法得到的结果分别为9.1%和8.4%,从生产函数法的计算过程中,认为广东在1978—2012年的经济具有规模报酬不变的特征,并就当前情况作了分析。在对未来预测上,考虑到生产函数的各要素间可能存在相互关系而使用向量自回归进行。并以本轮金融危机的延续时间为变量,分别测算不同情况下未来五年和十年的平均增长率。
In this paper,the growth rate of potential GDP of Guangdong Province has been estimated using the HP filter method and the production function method.The results of them are respectively 9.1% and 8.4%,and from the calculation of the production function, Guangdong’s economy in 1978-2012 has the characteristics of constant returns to scale,and makes analysis of the current situation.In predicting the future,this paper takes the possible relationship between the elements of the production function into account and uses the vector auto-regression method.Taking the duration of the financial crisis as a variable,this paper measured the average growth rate over the next five years and ten years under different circumstances.
出处
《经济研究导刊》
2014年第16期102-106,118,共6页
Economic Research Guide
关键词
HP滤波
生产函数法
向量自回归
GDP增长率预测
HP-filter
production function
vector auto-regression
forecast the growth rate of GDP
