摘要
建立积冰概率模型,利用NOAA提供的温度、相对湿度资料,计算华东地区积冰高度范围及概率。结果表明:山东、江苏、安徽、浙江、江西、福建六省冬季积冰高度层均出现在1 000至500 hPa,夏季均出现在600至400 hPa;冬季和夏季积冰概率最大,春季和秋季次之;积冰概率在33°N附近达到最大值,该纬度以北积冰概率随纬度增加而减弱,以南随纬度的减小而增加,且出现积冰的可能性较以北更大;冬季积冰概率大于50%,最大可达到76.4%;春季积冰概率大于40%,最大可达到72.7%;夏季积冰概率大于50%,最大可达到67.9%;秋季积冰概率大于40%,最大可达到53%。
By building icing probability model and using data of temperature and relative humidity provided by NOAA, the icing height range and probability of East China is calculated. The results show that, in East China, icing level occurs between 1000hPa and 500hPa in winter, while between 600hPa and 400hPa in summer, and icing probability reaches maximum in winter and summer, followed by spring and autumn. Icing probability reaches maximum in the vicinity of 33°N. In North of the latitude, icing probability weakens with the latitude increasing, while in the south, it increases with latitude decreasing, and the possibility of icing is even larger than the north. Winter icing probability is greater than 50%, and the maximum can reach 76.4%. Spring icing probability is greater than 40%, and the maximum can reach 72.7%. Summer ice probability is greater than 50%, the maximum can reach 67.9%. Autumn icing probability is greater than 40%, the maximum can reach 53%.
出处
《中国民航飞行学院学报》
2014年第4期41-44,共4页
Journal of Civil Aviation Flight University of China
基金
民航飞行技术与飞行安全科研基地资助项目(F2012KF06)
