摘要
阐述了中国情报研究的现状以及情报服务需求的变化,提出预测性情报研究在中国有很大的需求空间。分析了预测性情报研究的过程。指出预测方法是预测性情报研究的重要内容,要做好预测性情报研究工作,必须重视预测方法的研究和选用,应尽可能地选择组合法,并以一种方法为主,其它方法为辅,这样可从不同角度预测事态发展结果,互相补充和修正,以达到较佳的预测结果。
In this article, the author illustrated the situation of Chinese Intelligence Research and the variation of demand of Intelligence service. According to this, the writer also proposed that there is still a giant requirement space of this area in China.He analyzed processes of Predictable Intelligence Research and stated that predictability method is the most significant content of Predictable Intelligence Research. Researchers have to focus on analysis and selections of predictability method to improve Predictable Intelligence Research. The author suggested that a combination method is the most appropriate way to do the research, mainly focuses on one method and uses other functions as assistant. In this way, observations are from various angles and the result can be predicted in different ways. That di verse angles supply and correcteach other makes the consequence more precise.
出处
《农业图书情报学刊》
2014年第6期9-14,共6页
Journal of Library and Information Sciences in Agriculture
关键词
中国
情报研究
预测性情报研究
定量预测法
定性预测法
情景分析法
China
Intelligence research
Predictable Intelligence research
Quantitative forecast
Qualitative forecast
Sce-nario analysis
