摘要
研究猪饲料产业链的市场整合程度,对于把握我国猪饲料市场总体运行状况,进一步促进产业持续健康发展,具有非常重要的理论价值和实践意义。运用向量误差修正模型、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分析等计量分析方法,选取玉米、饲料、生猪、猪肉这4种商品的价格共同组成猪饲料产业链价格体系,分析中国猪饲料产业链整合程度。研究发现:"玉米-猪饲料"链条、"猪饲料-生猪"链条、"生猪-猪肉"链条的短期整合程度较高,长期整合效果不佳;处于上游阶段的玉米价格对中游猪饲料价格、下游生猪价格与猪肉价格都具有较为明显的影响;短期内玉米、猪饲料、生猪、猪肉市场价格波动主要受自身惯性冲击的影响,长期内自身惯性冲击影响不断下降,源自于产业链上下游市场价格的影响加强。最后,提出了提高各环节之间的整合程度、不断提高饲料企业的实力、积极引导产业链结构调整等政策建议。
The research of the integration of feed industry chain market,has a very important theoretical and practical significance to grasp the overall performance of China's feed market and further promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the industry.In order to understand the integration of China's feed industry chain market,this paper analyse the price system of feed industry chain which is composed of corn,feed,pig prices by using the vector error correction model,granger causality test,impulse response function,variance analysis and other quantitative analysis methods.The research found that:The integration of corn-feed chain,feed-pig chain is effective in short-term,but the long-term effect is not good;the price of raw materials(such as corn)have a more significant impact to the price of feed and pig;The fluctuations of feed price can be attributed to the inertial impact of itself,with the passage of time,the influence of the inertial impact on the industry is declining,while the impact derived from the industry chain is showing a strengthening trend.Finally,this paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations,such as improving the degree of integration between the various links,and the strength of feed enterprises,restructuring the industrial chain.
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2014年第3期91-96,共6页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"新型城镇化背景下农村劳动力外流对粮食生产的影响机理及对策研究"(13AGL004)
农业部现代农业产业技术体系"国家水禽产业技术体系"专项资金(CARS-43-10B)
湖南省高校创新平台开放基金项目"基于质量控制的农产品供应链治理结构问题研究"(10K030)
