摘要
围绕天气预报中的不确定性问题,对中国18个省(市、区)229名代表了国家、省和地市3级以及不同岗龄的预报员进行了问卷调查。具体调查内容包括了以下3个方面:(1)应用数值预报的情况;(2)对天气预报准确率的看法;(3)对天气预报(数值预报)中不确定性、集合预报产品以及预报发布形式等问题的看法。结果表明,数值预报产品目前已经成为预报员们制作日常天气预报的主要工具。因此,数值预报所固有的可预报性(不确定性)问题已是预报员不得不面对的一个科学问题。最后,介绍了一项新近关于美国预报员在日常天气预报中应用集合预报信息所遇到的一些挑战,这包括"资料不全面、分析工具不足、培训教育不够、缺乏检验、工作负荷重、模式分辨率低以及预报规范格式的限制"7方面。这些可供气象学科带头人和业务管理决策者思考和计划。
A nation-wide survey was conducted to 229 forecasters who came from 18 provinces representing both senior andjunior forecasters at all three levels （national, provincial and regional） in China. Three issues are surveyed： （1） usage of numericalweather prediction （NWP） in daily operational weather forecasting; （2） opinion about weather forecast accuracy; and （3） viewabout uncertainty in forecasts including ensemble products and methods to convey forecast confidence. The result shows thatNWP has been applied by all forecasters to their daily preparations of weather forecasting. Therefore, forecast uncertainty orpredictability issue associated with highly nonlinear NWP models is a reality which forecasters have to face day by day. Longtermeducation is needed to train forecasters in effectively using and correctly interpreting forecast uncertainty information.Regarding weather forecast accuracy, all forecasters admit that any forecast has errors and believe that it will never be perfectno matter how advanced meteorological sciences are, given chaotic nature of the atmospheric system. With imperfect forecasts,most forecasters believe that specialized forecast products particularly tailored to a certain type of customer as well as frequentupdates of forecast information are important to maximize the economical and societal values of weather forecasts. In spite of thevariation in forecast accuracy, most forecasters have, however, an idea about their confidence or difficulty level of a forecast heor she is issuing beforehand. Being asked if such forecast confidence information should be released to the public and users, mostforecasters responded with a positive “yes” answer although a few of them worried that the pubic and users might be confusedand do not know how to use these information correctly. To fully accomplish this, forecasters acknowledge that forecast-issuingformat/context must also need to be reformed accordingly. Furthermore, the majority of forecasters welcome the National NWPCente
出处
《气象科技进展》
2014年第1期60-69,共10页
Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006018)
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013Z05)
关键词
集合数值预报和产品
天气预报准确率和不确定性
完全预报和不完全预报
预报员和问卷调查
ensemble numerical weather prediction and product, weather forecast accuracy and uncertainty, complete andincomplete forecasts, forecaster and questionnaire
