摘要
为了提高销售预测准确性,为企业生产决策提供参考依据,建立一个基于自回归滑动平均模型ARMA的销售预测模型,实现产品销售预测。采用修正因子对输入序列进行影响因素权值调整(前处理),再进行ARMA建模,并对预测结果再进行修正(后处理),提高了销售预测的准确性。以IIS为应用服务器,Oracle为数据库服务器,采用B/S体系结构和ASP.NET四层架构设计,实现时序销量数据修正、模型的识别、定阶、参数估计和预测数据修正以及预测展示等功能,完成产品销量预测系统。
In order to improve the accuracy of sales forecast to provide references for business decisions, a forecasting model for sales is set up to forecast the monthly total sales based on ARMA （ autoregressive moving average model）. The weight of each affecting factor of the input time series is adjusted by adopting the modifying factors （pretreatment）. Then, the ARMA model is built. Finally, the forecasting results are re-modified （post process） which improves the accuracy of sales forecast. By means of the IIS as the application server and the Oracle database as the database server, the B/S architecture and the design of ASP. NET four-layer architecture are adopted. The forecasting system includes functions like modification of the input sales data, model recognition, order selection, parameter estimation, modification of forecasting results and interface display to implement the product sales forecasting system.
出处
《计算机与现代化》
2014年第5期131-135,共5页
Computer and Modernization
基金
国家863计划项目(2009AA062802)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(60473125)
中国石油(CNPC)石油科技中青年创新基金资助项目(05E7013)
国家重大专项子课题(G5800-08-ZS-WX)
