摘要
全球气候变化所导致的海平面上升等现象对海岸带产生显著影响。红树林是生长在热带、亚热带沿海潮间带的生态系统,对海平面上升极为敏感。以广西钦州湾红树林生态系统为对象,采用SPRC(Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence)评估模式分析了气候变化所导致的海平面上升对红树林生态系统的主要影响。构建了以海平面上升速率、地面沉降/抬升速率、生境高程、日均淹水时间、潮滩坡度和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价体系。在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了定量评价红树林生态系统脆弱性方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景(近40年来广西海平面平均上升速率、IPCC预测的B1和A1FI情景)和时间尺度下(2030年、2050和2100年),广西钦州湾红树林生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价。研究结果表明,在近40年广西海平面平均上升速率与B1情景下,钦州湾红树林在各评估时段表现为不脆弱。而在A1FI情景下,至2050年研究区域41.3%红树林为低脆弱,至2100年增加至69.8%。研究采用的SPRC评估模型、脆弱性评价指标体系和定量空间评估方法能够客观定量评价气候变化所导致的海平面上升影响下红树林生态系统脆弱性,可为制定切实可行的应对措施和保障海岸带生态系统安全提供科学依据。
Sea level rise caused by global climate change has significant impacts on coastal zone. The mangrove ecosystems occur at the intertidal zone in tropical and subtropical coasts and are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of mangrove ecosystems to sea level rise, assess the impacts of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystem and formulate the feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal ecosystems. In this research, taking the mangrove ecosystems in the coastal zone of Qinzhou Bay, Guangxi province as a case study, the main impacts of sea level rise on the mangrove ecosystems were analyzed by adopting the SPRC （Source- Pathway-Receptor- Consequence） model. An indicator system for vulnerability assessment on coastal mangrove ecosystems under sea level rise was worked out, according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. The rate of sea level rise, subsidence/uplift rate, habitat elevation, daily mean inundation duration, intertidal slope and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators, taking into account of the characteristics of quantification, data accessibility, spatial and temporal heterogeneity. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform wasestablished by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment based on the sea-level rise rates of the present trend （ the rate of sea level rise in the past 40 years）, the B1 and A1FI scenarios in IPCC SRES were performed for three sets of projections of short-term （2030s）, mid-term （2050s） and long-term （2100s）. The results showed the mangrove ecosystems in the coastal zone of Qinzhou Bay was within the grade of no vulnerability at the present sea level rise rate of 0.29 cm/a and the B1 scenario of 0.38 cm/a for the projections of 2030s, 2050s and 2100s, respectively. As the sedimentation and land upl
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第10期2702-2711,共10页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家重大科学研究计划全球变化研究(2010CB951204)
国家自然科学基金项目(41201091)
上海市"浦江人才"计划(13PJ1402200)
河口海岸学国家重点实验室业务课题
