摘要
伴随着中国旅游产业规模的持续扩张,空间非均衡性已成为中国旅游经济发展的典型特征,对此部分内容进行研究有助于更为清晰地认知中国旅游发展的可持续性问题。文章采用中国30个省份1999-2010年数据为研究样本,以旅游产业专业化作为旅游发展的度量指标,依据较为前沿的地区经济发展差异与空间极化指数测度方法,分别在三区域与八区域分组设定下,依次分别对中国旅游发展的空间非均衡与极化水平进行了定量刻画。研究结果为:与核密度非参数估计预期判断一致,基尼系数测度及其分解表明,中国旅游发展空间非均衡程度整体上逐渐降低,即中国旅游发展正在向均衡方向演变;组间差异是主导中国旅游发展空间非均衡的主要来源,但这种贡献率存在逐渐缩小态势,同时,剩余项对中国旅游发展空间非均衡的影响逐渐增强,意味着省际旅游发展在组间交错程度有所上升,组间显著差异正在减弱;分组样本基尼系数对时间的稳健最小二乘估计结果显示,除东北和西南地区外,全国及其他分组区域均呈现"俱乐部"收敛,再次证明了中国旅游发展空间非均衡程度随时间演进而降低;三类极化指数表明,三大区域旅游发展空间极化程度逐渐减弱,但八大区域旅游发展空间极化程度略有起伏,近期中国旅游发展空间极化程度具有增强趋势,主要原因在于组内认同程度与组间疏远程度反向变动,组内认同程度提高与组间疏远程度下降成为中国旅游发展空间极化程度降低的内在动因;此外,三大区域极化减弱程度大于其非均衡程度,八大区域与之相反。
With continuous expansion of the scale of China＇ s tourism industry, spatial inequality has been a typical feature of tourism development in China. Therefore, this study can help more clearly recognize the sustainability of tourism development in China. Taking the data of China＇ s 30 provinces from 1999 to 2010 as the sample and tourism industry specialization as a proxy indicator for tourism development, according to cutting-edge measurement methods of economic development differences and spatial polarization index, this paper conducts a quantitative characterization of spatial inequality and polarization of tourism development in China respectively under three regions and eight regions. Research conclusions show that consistent with expectation of non-parametric kernel density estimation, according to Gini coefficient measurement and its decomposition, spatial inequality of tourism development in China gradually reduces, that is, tourism development in China is evolving towards a balanced direction ; between-group inequality is the main source of spatial inequality of tourism development in China, however, this contribution rate gradually existing the narrowing trend. Meanwhile, the impact of the residual on spatial inequality of tourism development in China has been strengthening increasingly, meaning that betweengroup overlap of inter-provincial tourism development rises, and significant difference between groups weakens ; least squares estimation results （OLS） of Gini coefficient on time under subgroups show that except the northeast and southwest region, the country and other regional groups indicates a ＂club＂ convergence, and proving once again that spatial inequality of tourism development in China has been lowering over time; three types of polarization index show that the spatial polarization degree of tourism development in China gradually weakens in three regions, but the spatial polarization degree of tourism development in China is slightly up and down in eight regions. Tourism developme
出处
《中国人口·资源与环境》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期154-162,共9页
China Population,Resources and Environment
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"新型城镇化视角下我国休闲旅游功能区发展模式与机制研究"(编号:13CGL083)
关键词
旅游发展
空间非均衡
基尼系数
极化
tourism development
spatial inequality
Gini coefficient
polarization
