摘要
根据导线积冰的物理模型框架以及对导线积冰的主要影响气象因子相关分析,构造与导线积冰增长有关的水汽输送量指标,建立了导线积冰的预测模型;利用贵州省9个气象站1951—2010年的积冰观测资料和同期气象观测资料,采用非线性回归分析等方法,拟合了预测模型中效率因子系数的经验函数。建立的模型中各因子均为可预报气象要素,因而具有更好的预报可操作性,历史资料的拟合效果比较理想。
The icing on electric wires is a complicated physical process affected by all kinds of meteorological factors.The theoretical frame of the model for icing and the main influencing meteorological factors on the increase of icing accretion on electric wires are analyzed,and the moisture transportation index related to ice growth is built.The meteorological forecasting model of icing accretion on electric wires is proposed.Using the icing and common meteorological data from 1951to 2010from meteorological observation stations of Guizhou Province,the empirical function of the efficiency factor in the model is fitted,and compared with the existing icing model.The results indicate that this model has better maneuverability,and the fitting results of the model for historical data are satisfactory.
出处
《气象科技》
2014年第2期319-323,共5页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
公益性行业专项(GYHY201006033)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)资助
关键词
导线积冰
气象因子
预测模型
icing accretion on electric wire
meteorological element
forecasting model
