摘要
消费函数是决定消费行为的函数,即消费与其决定因素之间的关系的数学描述.近年来,很多学者运用现代经济学理论对中国消费函数进行了大量研究.然而,却少有针对旅游消费函数的研究.周文丽和李世平以凯恩斯的绝对收入假说为支撑,应用计量经济学方法构建我国的旅游消费函数模型,对我国城乡居民国内旅游消费与收入之间的数量关系进行较为深入的对比分析.但是,周文在实证检验的过程中误用了E-G两步法的临界值,得出的结论不能使人信服.对此,文章使用1994 ～ 2010年的年度数据重新进行了实证检验,结果表明：（1）中国居民旅游消费和当期收入之间不存在长期协整关系,基于绝对收入假说构建的旅游消费函数不能解释中国居民的旅游消费行为.（2）农村居民的国内旅游消费行为通过了持久收入假说、合理预期的动态消费函数以及滞后调整的动态消费函数的实证检验,而这些消费模型的内在一致性说明,农村居民的旅游消费决策是由其持久收入决定,由于医疗、教育、养老等问题无法得到妥善解决,使得农村居民的实际收入和预期收入水平下降,从而导致其旅游消费偏低.（3）城镇居民的国内旅游消费行为无法满足西方经典消费函数模型,一个原因在于旅游消费行为依靠闲暇时间,而城镇居民的闲暇时间受到严格的制度约束,在带薪休假制度无法有效实施的前提下,更多依靠公共假期.文章将闲暇时间这一变量纳入旅游消费模型,发现闲暇时间的增加有助于城镇居民国内旅游消费的提高.在这些结论的基础上,文章提出了进一步研究的方向.
The consumption function is a single mathematical function used to express consumer spending. Much research has been done in recent years on the consumption function of China using the theory of modern economic theory. However,research on the consumption function of tourism is rare. The writer focuses on the significance of studying the consumption function of tourism in this paper,and analyzes empirically a Chinese tourism consumption model. Study on the tourism consumption function of this paper starts with a western classic consumption function because of the lack of a relevant theory in China. Domestic tourism consumer behavior of urban and rural residents is found to be beyond application of the classic western consumption function,but it passes the empirical test of permanent income hypothesis,rational expectation dynamic consumption function and the dynamic consumption function of lagged adjustment. According to the permanent income hypothesis of rural residents' tourism consumption,each one yuan increase in rural residents' permanent income brings a 0. 22 yuan increase in tourism consumption. Based on rational expectation of consumption function,each one yuan increase in rural residents' permanent income brings a 0. 13 yuan tourism consumption. Likewise,in comparison of average propensity of tourism consumption of rural residents,it is safe to draw the conclusion that expected income of rural residents is lower than thecurrent income. In another aspect,based on consumption function of lagged adjustment,each one yuan increase brings a 0. 13 yuan increase in expected tourism consumption. The reason that actual tourism consumption is lower than the expected value indicates tourism consumption of rural residents is restrained by other conditions and thus cannot be totally released. Actually,these consumption functions have internal consistency: permanent income of rural residents determines the tourism consumption decision,meaning that if rural residents have a rising expectancy about future income,so does th
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
2014年第3期31-39,共9页
Tourism Tribune
基金
北京联合大学人才强校计划人才资助项目(BPHR2012E03)资助~~
