摘要
依据外商投资动机把FDI划分为四个基本类型,借助净现值和资金循环原理将汇率水平和汇率预期对四类FDI的影响分别建模,利用2007—2012年的月度数据进行协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验。研究结果表明,人民币汇率变化对FDI流入的影响与项目初始设备材料采购的市场区位密切相关;外商投资动机的不同组合决定着汇率预期对FDI流入的作用方向。在人民币升值预期背景下,外商对FDI会重点考虑市场导向与成本导向结合型,相对不愿意介入成本导向与出口导向结合型,实证结果与理论分析基本一致。
According to investment motives, FDI can be divided into four types. Through net present value and capital cycle theories, effects of current and expected RMB exchange rates volatility on four types of FDI are analyzed in modeling, then using 2007.1-2012.12 monthly data to make co integration test and Granger causality test. The conclusion shows that, effects of RMB exchange rate volatility on FDI are closely related to market locations where initial equipment and materials of projects are bought. Specific effects of exchange rate expectation on FDI are determined by different portfolios of foreign investment motives. In the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign investors are willing to consider the conjunction type of market-oriented and cost-oriented FDI, instead of cost-oriented and export-oriented one. The empirical results are consistent with the prediction of the theory.
出处
《河北经贸大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第3期66-73,共8页
Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business
关键词
FDI
即期汇率
远期汇率
市场导向
成本导向
运营成本
货币转换
货币升值预期
FDI
spot rate
forward rate
market-oriented
cost-oriented
operating cost
currency transformation
currencyappreciation expectation
